Danny Roberts vs Francisco Trinaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record29-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'8"
74"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team McHaleTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Danny Roberts carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1639
If they lose-10→ 1607
If they win+7→ 1773
If they lose-17→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny RobertsFrancisco Trinaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo78%
Danny Roberts 22%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 78% favorite over Danny Roberts in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1617, a 149-point edge.
Danny Roberts enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Danny Roberts finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.
Danny Roberts carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.