Danny Roberts vs Nathan Coy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record15-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
74"Reach39,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team McHaleTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Nathan Coy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Danny Roberts carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1634
If they lose-15→ 1602
If they win+15→ 1654
If they lose-17→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1654 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny RobertsNathan Coy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Coy56%
Danny Roberts 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Coy a 56% favorite over Danny Roberts in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Nathan Coy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1617, a 22-point edge.
Danny Roberts enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Danny Roberts finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Coy 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.