Daron Cruickshank vs Erik Koch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-14-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach71,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Michigan Top TeamTeamRoufusport· 1684 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Erik Koch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Daron Cruickshank carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1616
If they lose-11→ 1592
If they win+11→ 1656
If they lose-13→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daron CruickshankErik Koch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Erik Koch79%
Daron Cruickshank 21%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Erik Koch a 79% favorite over Daron Cruickshank in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Erik Koch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1603, a 42-point edge.
Daron Cruickshank finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Erik Koch 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.