Combat Edge Intelligence

Daron Cruickshank vs Erik Koch

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Erik Koch
us

Erik Koch

“The Phoenix”

16-6-0LightweightUFC

1644Solid

Tale of the tape

23-14-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach71,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Michigan Top TeamTeamRoufusport

What's at stake

Erik Koch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Daron Cruickshank carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daron CruickshankNow 1602
If they win+13→ 1615
If they lose-11→ 1591
Erik KochNow 1644
If they win+11→ 1655
If they lose-13→ 1631

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.88
Sig. strikes / min
2.33
38%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.82
57%
Strike defense
47%
2.04
Takedown avg.
1.02
42%
Takedown accuracy
43%
60%
Takedown defense
82%
0.23
Submission avg.
1.02

Trajectory

Daron CruickshankErik Koch
160016502018201920202021

Win method breakdown

14 (61%)
KO/TKO
4 (25%)
2 (9%)
Submission
8 (50%)
7 (30%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Erik Koch72%
Daron Cruickshank 28%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Erik Koch a 72% favorite over Daron Cruickshank in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Erik Koch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1602, a 42-point edge.

Daron Cruickshank finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Erik Koch 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.