Combat Edge Intelligence

Daron Cruickshank vs Jorge Masvidal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-14-0Record35-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Michigan Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Jorge Masvidal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Daron Cruickshank carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daron CruickshankNow 1602
If they win+17→ 1619
If they lose-7→ 1595
Jorge MasvidalNow 1740
If they win+7→ 1747
If they lose-17→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1781 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.88
Sig. strikes / min
4.05
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
57%
Strike defense
64%
2.04
Takedown avg.
1.38
42%
Takedown accuracy
59%
60%
Takedown defense
73%
0.23
Submission avg.
0.32

Trajectory

Daron CruickshankJorge Masvidal
160016501700175020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

14 (61%)
KO/TKO
16 (46%)
2 (9%)
Submission
2 (6%)
7 (30%)
Decision
17 (49%)

Combat Edge model read

Jorge Masvidal75%
Daron Cruickshank 25%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Masvidal a 75% favorite over Daron Cruickshank in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Jorge Masvidal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1602, a 138-point edge.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Daron Cruickshank finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Masvidal 51%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.