Combat Edge Intelligence

Daron Cruickshank vs Mike Rio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mike Rio
us

Mike Rio

“The Wolverine”

10-5-0LightweightFTP

1569Solid

Tale of the tape

23-14-0Record10-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Michigan Top TeamTeamZen Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Daron Cruickshank is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mike Rio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daron CruickshankNow 1602
If they win+11→ 1613
If they lose-13→ 1589
Mike RioNow 1569
If they win+18→ 1587
If they lose-14→ 1555

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.88
Sig. strikes / min
1.68
38%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
57%
Strike defense
53%
2.04
Takedown avg.
2.58
42%
Takedown accuracy
28%
60%
Takedown defense
0%
0.23
Submission avg.
1.03

Trajectory

Daron CruickshankMike Rio
1550160016502012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

14 (61%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
2 (9%)
Submission
5 (50%)
7 (30%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Daron Cruickshank60%
Mike Rio 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Daron Cruickshank a 60% favorite over Mike Rio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Daron Cruickshank holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1569, a 33-point edge.

Daron Cruickshank finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Mike Rio 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.