Combat Edge Intelligence

Darrell Horcher vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-7-0Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72,0"Reach70"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Unrivaled AthleticsTeamFightspirit Team

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Darrell Horcher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darrell HorcherNow 1605
If they win+27→ 1632
If they lose-5→ 1600
Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+4→ 1894
If they lose-20→ 1870

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.05
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
39%
Strike defense
65%
0.35
Takedown avg.
5.32
50%
Takedown accuracy
48%
47%
Takedown defense
85%
0.69
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Darrell HorcherKhabib Nurmagomedov
1600170018001900201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
1 (7%)
Submission
11 (38%)
6 (43%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov84%
Darrell Horcher 16%Elo baseline: 84%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 84% favorite over Darrell Horcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1605, a 285-point edge.

Darrell Horcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Darrell Horcher finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.

Darrell Horcher carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.