Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Diego Brandao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record29-21-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'7"
71"Reach38,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Diego Brandao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+9→ 1708
If they lose-15→ 1684
Diego BrandaoNow 1604
If they win+15→ 1619
If they lose-9→ 1595

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
52%
Strike defense
62%
2.86
Takedown avg.
3.21
35%
Takedown accuracy
68%
56%
Takedown defense
81%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsDiego Brandao
1550160016501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
16 (55%)
6 (21%)
Submission
6 (21%)
14 (48%)
Decision
7 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins72%
Diego Brandao 28%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 72% favorite over Diego Brandao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1604, a 95-point edge.

Diego Brandao enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Diego Brandao 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.