Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Hatsu Hioki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record29-12-2
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamAlive

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Hatsu Hioki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+10→ 1709
If they lose-14→ 1685
Hatsu HiokiNow 1640
If they win+14→ 1654
If they lose-10→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.42
38%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.12
52%
Strike defense
66%
2.86
Takedown avg.
2.55
35%
Takedown accuracy
57%
56%
Takedown defense
54%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsHatsu Hioki
16501700201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
5 (17%)
6 (21%)
Submission
12 (41%)
14 (48%)
Decision
12 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins72%
Hatsu Hioki 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 72% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1640, a 59-point edge.

Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Hatsu Hioki 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.