Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Jeremy Stephens

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record29-23-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+7→ 1706
If they lose-17→ 1682
Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+17→ 1568
If they lose-7→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
38%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
52%
Strike defense
59%
2.86
Takedown avg.
1.11
35%
Takedown accuracy
38%
56%
Takedown defense
62%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsJeremy Stephens
15501600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
19 (66%)
6 (21%)
Submission
2 (7%)
14 (48%)
Decision
8 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins72%
Jeremy Stephens 28%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 72% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1551, a 148-point edge.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.