Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Lucas Martins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-13-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamCapital da Luta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Darren ElkinsNow 1685
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-12→ 1673
Lucas MartinsNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.87
38%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
51%
Strike defense
60%
2.87
Takedown avg.
0
20%
Takedown accuracy
0%
56%
Takedown defense
77%
1.07
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsLucas Martins
170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
14 (64%)
6 (21%)
Submission
5 (23%)
14 (48%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins54%
Lucas Martins 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 54% favorite over Lucas Martins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1679), separated by just 6 points.

Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Martins 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.