Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Lucas Martins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamCapital da Luta

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Lucas Martins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+11→ 1710
If they lose-13→ 1686
Lucas MartinsNow 1680
If they win+13→ 1693
If they lose-11→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.87
38%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
52%
Strike defense
60%
2.86
Takedown avg.
0
35%
Takedown accuracy
0%
56%
Takedown defense
77%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsLucas Martins
17002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
14 (64%)
6 (21%)
Submission
5 (23%)
14 (48%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Martins56%
Darren Elkins 44%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Martins a 56% favorite over Darren Elkins in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Darren Elkins's way (47%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1680, a 19-point edge.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Martins 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.