Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Michihiro Omigawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-13-0Record19-15-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamNeo Judo Academy

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michihiro Omigawa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1685
If they win+11→ 1696
If they lose-13→ 1672
Michihiro OmigawaNow 1644
If they win+13→ 1657
If they lose-11→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.01
38%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
51%
Strike defense
64%
2.87
Takedown avg.
1.19
20%
Takedown accuracy
37%
56%
Takedown defense
49%
1.07
Submission avg.
1.51

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsMichihiro Omigawa
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
6 (21%)
Submission
5 (26%)
14 (48%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins72%
Michihiro Omigawa 28%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 72% favorite over Michihiro Omigawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1644, a 41-point edge.

Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Michihiro Omigawa 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.