Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Mirsad Bektić

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record13-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mirsad Bektić carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+11→ 1710
If they lose-13→ 1686
Mirsad BektićNow 1677
If they win+17→ 1694
If they lose-15→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.43
38%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.80
52%
Strike defense
58%
2.86
Takedown avg.
3.98
35%
Takedown accuracy
53%
56%
Takedown defense
92%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsMirsad Bektić
170017502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
6 (21%)
Submission
3 (23%)
14 (48%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Mirsad Bektić63%
Darren Elkins 37%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Mirsad Bektić a 63% favorite over Darren Elkins in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Darren Elkins's way (47%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1677, a 22-point edge.

Mirsad Bektić enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Mirsad Bektić 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.