Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Ricardo Lamas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record20-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

Ricardo Lamas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Darren Elkins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+13→ 1712
If they lose-11→ 1688
Ricardo LamasNow 1730
If they win+11→ 1741
If they lose-13→ 1717

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
38%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.87
52%
Strike defense
58%
2.86
Takedown avg.
1.84
35%
Takedown accuracy
34%
56%
Takedown defense
47%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.95

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsRicardo Lamas
1700175020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
6 (21%)
Submission
5 (25%)
14 (48%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Ricardo Lamas56%
Darren Elkins 44%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Ricardo Lamas a 56% favorite over Darren Elkins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Ricardo Lamas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1699, a 31-point edge.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Lamas 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.