Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Tiequan Zhang

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-13-0Record15-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamChina Top Team

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Tiequan Zhang carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1685
If they win+6→ 1691
If they lose-18→ 1667
Tiequan ZhangNow 1511
If they win+35→ 1546
If they lose-13→ 1498

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
1.23
38%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.14
51%
Strike defense
52%
2.87
Takedown avg.
1.95
20%
Takedown accuracy
58%
56%
Takedown defense
75%
1.07
Submission avg.
3.35

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsTiequan Zhang
150015501600165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
6 (21%)
Submission
11 (73%)
14 (48%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins92%
Tiequan Zhang 8%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 92% favorite over Tiequan Zhang in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1511, a 174-point edge.

Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tiequan Zhang enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Tiequan Zhang 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.