Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs TJ Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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TJ Brown
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TJ Brown

“Downtown”

20-12-0LightweightRDC

1601Solid

Tale of the tape

29-13-0Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamWestside MMA

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — TJ Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1685
If they win+9→ 1694
If they lose-15→ 1670
TJ BrownNow 1601
If they win+15→ 1616
If they lose-9→ 1592

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
38%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.89
51%
Strike defense
49%
2.87
Takedown avg.
3.41
20%
Takedown accuracy
58%
56%
Takedown defense
37%
1.07
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsTJ Brown
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (20%)
6 (21%)
Submission
12 (60%)
14 (48%)
Decision
4 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins70%
TJ Brown 30%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 70% favorite over TJ Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1601, a 84-point edge.

Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.