Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-13-0Record14-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tristan Connelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1685
If they win+9→ 1694
If they lose-15→ 1670
Tristan ConnellyNow 1598
If they win+20→ 1618
If they lose-12→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
38%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
51%
Strike defense
51%
2.87
Takedown avg.
0.33
20%
Takedown accuracy
14%
56%
Takedown defense
60%
1.07
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsTristan Connelly
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
6 (21%)
Submission
9 (64%)
14 (48%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins76%
Tristan Connelly 24%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 76% favorite over Tristan Connelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1598, a 87-point edge.

Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Darren Elkins carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.