Combat Edge Intelligence

Darren Elkins vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record14-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tristan Connelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+9→ 1708
If they lose-15→ 1684
Tristan ConnellyNow 1597
If they win+21→ 1618
If they lose-11→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
38%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
52%
Strike defense
51%
2.86
Takedown avg.
0.33
35%
Takedown accuracy
14%
56%
Takedown defense
60%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Darren ElkinsTristan Connelly
1600165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
6 (21%)
Submission
9 (64%)
14 (48%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Darren Elkins68%
Tristan Connelly 32%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 68% favorite over Tristan Connelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1597, a 102-point edge.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darren Elkins finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Darren Elkins carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.