Darren Till vs Derek Brunson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
74"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Darren Till carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1701
If they lose-13→ 1669
If they win+10→ 1765
If they lose-14→ 1741
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Darren TillDerek Brunson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson58%
Darren Till 42%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 58% favorite over Darren Till in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1682, a 73-point edge.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Darren Till finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Derek Brunson 67%.
Darren Till and Derek Brunson share 1 common opponent: Dricus Du Plessis.
Derek Brunson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.