Darren Till vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record36-17-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Darren Till carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1699
If they lose-15→ 1667
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Darren TillDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Darren Till68%
Donald Cerrone 32%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Darren Till a 68% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Donald Cerrone's way (46%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1682, a 28-point edge.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Darren Till finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.