Darren Till vs Matěj Peňáz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record11-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach83"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1594 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamReinders MMA· 1602 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1698
If they lose-16→ 1666
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-16→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Darren TillMatěj Peňáz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matěj Peňáz62%
Darren Till 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matěj Peňáz a 62% favorite over Darren Till in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Darren Till's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1680), separated by just 2 points.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matěj Peňáz enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Darren Till finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Matěj Peňáz 91%.
Matěj Peňáz carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.