Darren Till vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record17-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Stephen Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Darren Till carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1699
If they lose-15→ 1667
If they win+15→ 1717
If they lose-17→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Darren TillStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Darren Till56%
Stephen Thompson 44%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Darren Till a 56% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stephen Thompson's way (47%).
Stephen Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1682, a 20-point edge.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Darren Till finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.