Combat Edge Intelligence

Darrick Minner vs Grant Dawson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-14-0Record24-3-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
69"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Glory MMA & FitnessTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Darrick Minner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darrick MinnerNow 1624
If they win+18→ 1642
If they lose-6→ 1618
Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+6→ 1808
If they lose-18→ 1784

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.63
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
66%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
36%
Strike defense
45%
2.40
Takedown avg.
3.81
73%
Takedown accuracy
40%
67%
Takedown defense
57%
2.71
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Darrick MinnerGrant Dawson
16501700175018002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (4%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
22 (85%)
Submission
14 (58%)
3 (12%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson92%
Darrick Minner 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 92% favorite over Darrick Minner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1624, a 178-point edge.

Darrick Minner enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Darrick Minner finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.

Grant Dawson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.