Combat Edge Intelligence

Darya Zheleznyakova vs Melissa Croden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'10"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA FactoryTeamRaven House MMA

What's at stake

Darya Zheleznyakova is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Melissa Croden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Darya ZheleznyakovaNow 1638
If they win+15→ 1653
If they lose-17→ 1621
Melissa CrodenNow 1623
If they win+17→ 1640
If they lose-15→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1561 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.75
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
42%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.83
69%
Strike defense
53%
0.44
Takedown avg.
1.02
100%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Darya ZheleznyakovaMelissa Croden
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (13%)
5 (50%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Darya Zheleznyakova and Melissa Croden within a point of even.

Darya Zheleznyakova holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1623, a 15-point edge.

Darya Zheleznyakova finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Croden 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.