Dauren Ermekov vs Vladimir Vasilyev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Vladimir Vasilyev55%
Dauren Ermekov 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Vladimir Vasilyev a 55% favorite over Dauren Ermekov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dauren Ermekov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1649), separated by just 2 points.
Dauren Ermekov finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Vladimir Vasilyev 86%.
Dauren Ermekov and Vladimir Vasilyev share 1 common opponent: Chris Honeycutt.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record14-5-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
187 lbsWeight187 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1639
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dauren ErmekovVladimir Vasilyev
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
WinDecision (Split) · 2025
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2024