Combat Edge Intelligence

Dave Herman vs Gabriel Gonzaga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-6-0Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach42,0"
223 lbsWeight264 lbs
Team QuestTeamTeam Link

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dave HermanNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Gabriel GonzagaNow 1612
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.98
Sig. strikes / min
2.12
61%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
49%
Strike defense
57%
1.49
Takedown avg.
2.80
100%
Takedown accuracy
39%
58%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
1.10

Trajectory

Dave HermanGabriel Gonzaga
160016502012201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

17 (77%)
KO/TKO
9 (53%)
3 (14%)
Submission
7 (41%)
2 (9%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Dave Herman57%
Gabriel Gonzaga 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dave Herman a 57% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gabriel Gonzaga's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1612), separated by just 3 points.

Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dave Herman finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.