Dave Herman vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-6-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
223 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team QuestTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dave HermanJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa63%
Dave Herman 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 63% favorite over Dave Herman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dave Herman's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1608), separated by just 1 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dave Herman finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.