Dave Herman vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-6-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
TBDReach72,0"
223 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team QuestTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Roy Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dave Herman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1626
If they lose-15→ 1594
If they win+11→ 1637
If they lose-13→ 1613
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dave HermanRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dave Herman60%
Roy Nelson 40%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Dave Herman a 60% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roy Nelson's way (48%).
Roy Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1626 to 1609, a 17-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Dave Herman finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.