Dave Kaplan vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-4-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team TompkinsTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1477
If they lose-24→ 1429
If they win+16→ 1475
If they lose-16→ 1443
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dave KaplanLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte68%
Dave Kaplan 32%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 68% favorite over Dave Kaplan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1453 vs 1459), separated by just 6 points.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dave Kaplan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.