Dave Kaplan vs Raphael Mebenga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
3-4-0Record1-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team TompkinsTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1477
If they lose-24→ 1429
If they win+24→ 1473
If they lose-24→ 1425
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dave KaplanRaphael Mebenga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raphael Mebenga52%
Dave Kaplan 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Raphael Mebenga a 52% favorite over Dave Kaplan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dave Kaplan's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1453 vs 1449), separated by just 4 points.
Raphael Mebenga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dave Kaplan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.