Dave Kaplan vs Taisei Mizusugi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-4-0Record6-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team TompkinsTeamblooM
What's at stake
Taisei Mizusugi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Dave Kaplan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1478
If they lose-23→ 1430
If they win+15→ 1485
If they lose-17→ 1453
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dave KaplanTaisei Mizusugi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Taisei Mizusugi75%
Dave Kaplan 25%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Taisei Mizusugi a 75% favorite over Dave Kaplan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Taisei Mizusugi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1453, a 17-point edge.
Dave Kaplan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Taisei Mizusugi 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.