Combat Edge Intelligence

Dave Menne vs Murilo Bustamante

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dave Menne
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Dave Menne

“The Warrior”

45-17-2MiddleweightAFC

1665Good

Tale of the tape

45-17-2Record15-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Menne Combat AcademyTeamBrazilian Top Team

What's at stake

Dave Menne is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Murilo Bustamante carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dave MenneNow 1665
If they win+10→ 1675
If they lose-14→ 1651
Murilo BustamanteNow 1619
If they win+18→ 1637
If they lose-14→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.84
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
44%
Strike accuracy
33%
1.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.90
43%
Strike defense
60%
0.46
Takedown avg.
2.46
50%
Takedown accuracy
33%
57%
Takedown defense
55%
2.51
Submission avg.
1.23

Trajectory

Dave MenneMurilo Bustamante
160016501700201020112012

Win method breakdown

6 (13%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
19 (42%)
Submission
4 (27%)
20 (44%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Dave Menne61%
Murilo Bustamante 39%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Dave Menne a 61% favorite over Murilo Bustamante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Dave Menne holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1619, a 46-point edge.

Dave Menne finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Murilo Bustamante 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.