Dave Menne vs Phil Baroni
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
45-17-2Record16-19-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Menne Combat AcademyTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Dave Menne is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Phil Baroni carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1649
If they win+16→ 1563
If they lose-8→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dave MennePhil Baroni
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dave Menne57%
Phil Baroni 43%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Dave Menne a 57% favorite over Phil Baroni in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Dave Menne holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1547, a 118-point edge.
Dave Menne finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Phil Baroni 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.