Dave Terrel vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-9-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
176 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Dave Terrel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1469
If they lose-15→ 1437
If they win+23→ 1490
If they lose-25→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dave TerrelMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior60%
Dave Terrel 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 60% favorite over Dave Terrel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1452, a 15-point edge.
Dave Terrel enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dave Terrel finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.