Davey Grant vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record17-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'9"
69"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamTeam Oyama
What's at stake
Davey Grant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Louis Smolka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1680
If they lose-18→ 1648
If they win+13→ 1643
If they lose-11→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Davey GrantLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Davey Grant70%
Louis Smolka 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Davey Grant a 70% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Davey Grant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1630, a 36-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Davey Grant finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.