Combat Edge Intelligence

David Allen vs Fabio Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-2-0Record11-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-Reach--
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Roker Rough House MMATeamTeam Oyama

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David AllenNow 1469
If they win+23→ 1492
If they lose-25→ 1444
Fabio NascimentoNow 1461
If they win+25→ 1486
If they lose-23→ 1438

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
TBD
Strike accuracy
61%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.28
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.55
TBD
Takedown accuracy
26%
TBD
Takedown defense
17%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.93

Trajectory

David AllenFabio Nascimento
1450150020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (27%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

David Allen83%
Fabio Nascimento 17%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes David Allen a 83% favorite over Fabio Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1469 vs 1461), separated by just 8 points.

David Allen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Fabio Nascimento enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fabio Nascimento 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.