David Allen vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-2-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Roker Rough House MMATeamAstra Fight Team· 1573 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
David Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Marcio Alexandre Junior carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1491
If they lose-26→ 1443
If they win+26→ 1462
If they lose-22→ 1414
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1499 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
David AllenMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
David Allen53%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 47%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes David Allen a 53% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
David Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1469 to 1436, a 33-point edge.
David Allen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.