Combat Edge Intelligence

David Baron vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-4-1Record18-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Haute TensionTeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David BaronNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Terrance McKinneyNow 1662
If they win+12→ 1674
If they lose-12→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.53
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
44%
Strike accuracy
56%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
56%
Strike defense
43%
0
Takedown avg.
3.31
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
14%
Takedown defense
73%
1.13
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

David BaronTerrance McKinney
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
11 (65%)
Submission
9 (50%)
2 (12%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Terrance McKinney66%
David Baron 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 66% favorite over David Baron in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Baron's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1662), separated by just 0 points.

David Baron finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.