David Branch vs Rousimar Palhares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record19-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'8"
42,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamTeam Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
David Branch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Rousimar Palhares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1764
If they lose-19→ 1740
If they win+19→ 1563
If they lose-5→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
David BranchRousimar Palhares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
David Branch83%
Rousimar Palhares 17%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes David Branch a 83% favorite over Rousimar Palhares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
David Branch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1544, a 215-point edge.
David Branch enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rousimar Palhares enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
David Branch finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Rousimar Palhares 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.