Combat Edge Intelligence

David Branch vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

David Branch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

David BranchNow 1759
If they win+10→ 1769
If they lose-14→ 1745
Thiago SantosNow 1694
If they win+14→ 1708
If they lose-10→ 1684

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
40%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
57%
Strike defense
54%
2.55
Takedown avg.
0.88
33%
Takedown accuracy
33%
44%
Takedown defense
66%
0
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

David BranchThiago Santos
17001750180020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
7 (32%)
Submission
1 (5%)
9 (41%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

David Branch61%
Thiago Santos 39%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes David Branch a 61% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

David Branch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1694, a 65-point edge.

David Branch enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

David Branch finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.