David Branch vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
What's at stake
David Branch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1768
If they lose-15→ 1744
If they win+15→ 1689
If they lose-9→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
David BranchThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos54%
David Branch 46%Elo baseline: 38%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 54% favorite over David Branch in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Branch's way (38%).
David Branch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1674, a 85-point edge.
David Branch enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
David Branch finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.