Combat Edge Intelligence

David Branch vs Tomasz Drwal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record22-6-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
42,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamSzkola Walki Drwala

What's at stake

David Branch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tomasz Drwal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

David BranchNow 1759
If they win+7→ 1766
If they lose-17→ 1742
Tomasz DrwalNow 1615
If they win+17→ 1632
If they lose-7→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.29
40%
Strike accuracy
38%
1.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.26
57%
Strike defense
57%
2.55
Takedown avg.
3.55
33%
Takedown accuracy
60%
44%
Takedown defense
82%
0
Submission avg.
0.39

Trajectory

David BranchTomasz Drwal
160016501700175018002017201820192020

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
14 (64%)
7 (32%)
Submission
5 (23%)
9 (41%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

David Branch78%
Tomasz Drwal 22%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes David Branch a 78% favorite over Tomasz Drwal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

David Branch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1615, a 144-point edge.

David Branch enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

David Branch finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Tomasz Drwal 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.