David Heath vs Lyoto Machida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record26-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
203 lbsWeight185 lbs
Absolute Combat AllianceTeamAPAM
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
David HeathLyoto Machida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lyoto Machida75%
David Heath 25%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Lyoto Machida a 75% favorite over David Heath in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1683), separated by just 7 points.
David Heath enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
David Heath finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.