David Marshall vs Ebrahem Mahmoud
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record0-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach75''
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamDiesel Fighting Academy
What's at stake
David Marshall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Ebrahem Mahmoud carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1513
If they lose-25→ 1465
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1485 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
David MarshallEbrahem Mahmoud
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ebrahem Mahmoud67%
David Marshall 33%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 67% favorite over David Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Marshall's way (47%).
David Marshall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1490 to 1471, a 19-point edge.
David Marshall enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
David Marshall finishes 88% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.