Combat Edge Intelligence

David Teymur vs Jason Novelli

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record12-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
73,0"Reach75,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

David Teymur is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jason Novelli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

David TeymurNow 1678
If they win+14→ 1692
If they lose-18→ 1660
Jason NovelliNow 1637
If they win+18→ 1655
If they lose-14→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1602 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.69
Sig. strikes / min
1.73
43%
Strike accuracy
24%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
55%
Strike defense
67%
0.94
Takedown avg.
0.70
33%
Takedown accuracy
33%
78%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

David TeymurJason Novelli
1600165017002016201720182019

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (50%)
4 (50%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

David Teymur82%
Jason Novelli 18%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes David Teymur a 82% favorite over Jason Novelli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

David Teymur holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1637, a 41-point edge.

David Teymur finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jason Novelli 75%.

Jason Novelli carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.