Combat Edge Intelligence

David Velasquez vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-10-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'5"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David VelasquezNow 1484
If they win+16→ 1500
If they lose-16→ 1468
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1480
If they win+16→ 1496
If they lose-16→ 1464

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

David VelasquezKyohei Hagiwara
15002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
5 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (20%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyohei Hagiwara64%
David Velasquez 36%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 64% favorite over David Velasquez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Velasquez's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1484 vs 1480), separated by just 4 points.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

David Velasquez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.