Combat Edge Intelligence

David Zawada vs Ryan McGillivray

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-13-0Record12-6-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
UFD GymTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David ZawadaNow 1560
If they win+12→ 1572
If they lose-12→ 1548
Ryan McGillivrayNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
1.27
41%
Strike accuracy
21%
4.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.20
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.97
Takedown avg.
0
17%
Takedown accuracy
0%
57%
Takedown defense
44%
1.69
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

David ZawadaRyan McGillivray
1550160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (60%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
5 (25%)
Submission
10 (83%)
3 (15%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

David Zawada60%
Ryan McGillivray 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes David Zawada a 60% favorite over Ryan McGillivray in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan McGillivray's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1562), separated by just 2 points.

David Zawada finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Ryan McGillivray 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.