Combat Edge Intelligence

Davlet Karataev vs Igor Araujo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
69"ReachTBD
157 lbsWeight170 lbs
Spitfire Gym Berlin· 1618 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Davlet KarataevNow 1643
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627
Igor AraujoNow 1643
If they win+12→ 1655
If they lose-12→ 1631

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.52
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.86
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.86
TBD
Takedown accuracy
16%
TBD
Takedown defense
22%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Davlet KarataevIgor Araujo
155016001650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (4%)
2 (22%)
Submission
17 (68%)
1 (11%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Davlet Karataev60%
Igor Araujo 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Davlet Karataev a 60% favorite over Igor Araujo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1643), separated by just 0 points.

Davlet Karataev enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Igor Araujo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Davlet Karataev finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Igor Araujo 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.