Combat Edge Intelligence

Dean Lister vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Dean Lister
us

Dean Lister

“The Boogeyman”

13-7-0MiddleweightADCC

1558Solid

Tale of the tape

13-7-0Record36-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Victory MMATeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

Nate Marquardt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Dean Lister carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dean ListerNow 1558
If they win+20→ 1578
If they lose-12→ 1546
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+9→ 1660
If they lose-15→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.30
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
34%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
62%
Strike defense
56%
1.81
Takedown avg.
1.87
15%
Takedown accuracy
51%
50%
Takedown defense
71%
1.13
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Dean ListerNate Marquardt
15501600165020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
11 (85%)
Submission
15 (42%)
2 (15%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Marquardt66%
Dean Lister 34%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Marquardt a 66% favorite over Dean Lister in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Nate Marquardt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1558, a 93-point edge.

Dean Lister enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Dean Lister finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.