Dean Lister vs Yuki Sasaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-0Record25-22-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight180 lbs
Victory MMATeamGrabaka
What's at stake
Dean Lister is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Yuki Sasaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1571
If they lose-19→ 1539
If they win+19→ 1507
If they lose-13→ 1475
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dean ListerYuki Sasaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dean Lister60%
Yuki Sasaki 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Dean Lister a 60% favorite over Yuki Sasaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Dean Lister holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1558 to 1488, a 70-point edge.
Dean Lister enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Yuki Sasaki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Dean Lister finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Yuki Sasaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.