Demetrious Johnson vs Dominick Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-1Record24-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'8"
66.00"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
AMC PankrationTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Demetrious Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dominick Cruz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1854
If they lose-14→ 1830
If they win+14→ 1802
If they lose-10→ 1778
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demetrious JohnsonDominick Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Demetrious Johnson64%
Dominick Cruz 36%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Demetrious Johnson a 64% favorite over Dominick Cruz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Demetrious Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1844 to 1788, a 56-point edge.
Demetrious Johnson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Demetrious Johnson finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Dominick Cruz 33%.
Demetrious Johnson and Dominick Cruz share 1 common opponent: Henry Cejudo.
Dominick Cruz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.