Demetrious Johnson vs Joshua Van
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-1Record17-2-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
66.00"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
AMC PankrationTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Demetrious Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joshua Van carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1855
If they lose-14→ 1831
If they win+18→ 1819
If they lose-14→ 1787
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demetrious JohnsonJoshua Van
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joshua Van72%
Demetrious Johnson 28%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Joshua Van a 72% favorite over Demetrious Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demetrious Johnson's way (44%).
Demetrious Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1845 to 1801, a 44-point edge.
Demetrious Johnson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Demetrious Johnson finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Joshua Van 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.