Combat Edge Intelligence

Demetrious Johnson vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-4-1Record36-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'5"
66.00"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
AMC PankrationTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Demetrious Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kyoji Horiguchi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demetrious JohnsonNow 1844
If they win+10→ 1854
If they lose-14→ 1830
Kyoji HoriguchiNow 1800
If they win+14→ 1814
If they lose-10→ 1790

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.43
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
55%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
67%
Strike defense
64%
3.35
Takedown avg.
1.61
56%
Takedown accuracy
41%
66%
Takedown defense
61%
0.52
Submission avg.
0.11

Trajectory

Demetrious JohnsonKyoji Horiguchi
1800185020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (20%)
KO/TKO
15 (42%)
8 (32%)
Submission
6 (17%)
12 (48%)
Decision
15 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyoji Horiguchi63%
Demetrious Johnson 37%Elo baseline: 44%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyoji Horiguchi a 63% favorite over Demetrious Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demetrious Johnson's way (44%).

Demetrious Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1844 to 1800, a 44-point edge.

Demetrious Johnson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Demetrious Johnson finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Kyoji Horiguchi 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.